Singapore Exchange News

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By Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

• Panic, fear and uncertainty take hold of markets
• Euro looking to establish below 2012 lows from January
• Yen starts to find renewed bids on flight to safety status
• Eurozone political turmoil fuels intensified risk off trade
• Rating agency downgrades and Greek political developments weigh

The risk liquidation continues into Friday, and markets to this point have shown no real interest in any form of a bounce. The US Dollar and Yen have been the prime beneficiaries on their flight to safety status, while the Swiss Franc is still not participating given the aggressive SNB intervention measures. We wonder how much it is costing the SNB to keep the EUR/CHF cross propped above 1.2000, especially in these intense risk-off markets. At this point, the Euro should accelerate to test the yearly lows from January by 1.2625, although any additional declines from there would be hard to comprehend in light of the severely oversold daily technical studies.

Elsewhere, US equities are now testing some key support levels, while gold has finally found some bids ahead of $1500. It certainly isn’t common to see so many analysts bearish on the Euro and risk in general. We have seen even the most aggressive Euro bulls retract their positions, and these include some larger banks, hedge funds and even central banks.

Moving on, Moody’s downgrade of 16 Spanish banks, along with Spanish yields rising back above 6% has not helped matters, while comments from Greek SYRIZA leader Tsipras that his party will not join the any pro-bailout coalition only weighs further on risk sentiment. European leadership needs to step up and offer a solution; otherwise, we could see additional risk liquidation over the coming hours. It is more than likely that the burden will fall on the European Central Bank, and the introduction of a Eurobond or additional bond buying could offer some relief. Other tools at the ECB’s disposal include the LTRO and the ability to cut rates, both of which would also likely be viewed as a risk positive. One thing is for sure, the G8 Summit kicks off today and we should expect nothing from this front in terms of any helpful solutions.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

EUR/USD: The market remains under intense pressure and the focus for now is squarely on a retest of the 2012 lows from January at 1.2625. While we would not rule out a possibility of a test of this level over the coming sessions, short-term technical studies are well oversold and are showing a need for some form of a corrective bounce from where a fresh lower top is sought out. Ultimately however, any rallies should now be very well capped by previous support turned resistance at 1.3000 in favor of additional weakness over the medium-term that projects deeper setbacks into the lower 1.2000′s.

USD/JPY: The market continues to consolidate around 80.00 and is in the process of looking for a medium-term higher low ahead of the next major upside extension back above the yearly highs at 84.20 and towards 90.00 further up. However, for the time being it remains in question whether the market will still head lower towards the 200-Day SMA by 78.50 before ultimately reversing higher. The key level to watch above comes in by 80.60, and a break and close above this level will officially alleviate downside pressures and suggest that a higher low has now been carved in the 79.00′s.

GBP/USD: The market remains under intense pressure since breaking back below 1.6000 and setbacks could now extend towards next key support in he 1.5600 area over the coming sessions. Still, daily studies are now stretched and we would prefer looking to sell into rallies towards 1.5900 where a fresh lower top is sought out.

USD/CHF: Overall the structure remains highly constructive and we continue to project additional upside over the coming months back above parity. For now, the latest break and close above 0.9335 is expected to accelerate gains for a retest of the yearly highs by 0.9600, while any intraday pullbacks should be very well supported ahead of 0.9200. Ultimately, only back under 0.9000 would negate outlook and give reason for pause.

— Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

To contact Joel Kruger, email jskruger@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKruger

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2012 Singapore Stock market outlook(2012 股市展望),How to do contra trade & case study – Stocks for buy and hold. (对敲交易技巧&有潜能可持有的股票)

Image taken on 2012-04-05 17:23:04 by Joey Foo.

By Justin Harper
Market Strategist
IG Markets Singapore

No stone was left unturned as panic-stricken investors contributed to a heavy sell-off in risk assets leaving Asian markets nursing some heavy losses for the week.

The STI suffered another sharp fall today losing 1.5% of its value to finish lower at 2779.1. Given three weeks ago it was enjoying the heady heights above 3000 it was a correction that few saw coming so rapidly and so soon.

Gains for the year have now fallen back down to single digits after rocketing 14% in the first quarter of the year. The STI has now fallen to a four-month low as traders fret about a Greek exit, Spanish banks and basically anything situated in the eurozone.

Sluggish economic data from the US may have been a determining factor in today’s larger-than-normal losses across Asian bourses. The Nikkei 225 lost 3%, the ASX plummeted 2.7% while the Shanghai Composite fell 1.4%.

Adding to the sea of red, the Hang Seng lost 1.3% while the Kospi shed 3.4%.
In Singapore investors were indiscriminate in their sell-off with the healthy and robust banking sector among the biggest casualties. UOB suffered the worst, seeing 3% of its value wiped away.

Commodities stocks were also hit hard with Wilmar, Golden Agri-Resources and Olam all losing ground as they fall out of favour with loyal traders.

Japan’s Nikkei was among the worst performers in the region today on the back of a stronger yen. Yen bulls reasserted themselves, with USD/JPY losing its footing in the face of the surprise deterioration in the US economic data.

The JPY is currently the currency of choice for nervous investors and USD/JPY dropped to a low of 79.13.

European markets are experiencing a weaker open, with the FTSE100 and CAC both down 0.7%.

In the US, tonight is all about Facebook, and we thoroughly expect a good showing on its first day of trade. One hopes a positive tape will lift spirits, if for no other reason than to give traders something other than Greece to think about.

But all is not dead and buried with a second Greek election on the cards. A coalition government may still push ahead with austerity measures and voters may get a last-minute reality check that leaving the eurozone will be far more painful than staying in it.

We had been expecting some sort of consolidation in risk assets given the steep falls of late, and perhaps we are too early – or just plain wrong – but it feels like any bounces will be minimal and traders will be quick to put on new shorts if a move higher eventuates.

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In last week, STI fell 104 points from the opening of 2883 and close lower at 2779. A long black candle sticks with little lower shadow affirms that investors panic sell on poor economics ahead.

Key Economics Data report:

Europe will keep traders alert on financial markets in the week ahead as investors size up Greece’s commitment to the euro zone and watch for other headlines on the debt crisis.

In the past week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and newly elected French President Francois Hollande both said Greece should stay in the euro zone. Greece’s failure to form a ruling coalition after its May 6 election has now led it to a second election in June.

Technical Analysis on STI

STI index broke the critical support at 2792 in the past week and this is a very bearish signal.

1) In weekly chart, a long black candle sticks with short lower shadow indicates investors sell on fear.

2) The weekly trading volume remains high as the traders continue to sell on fears.

3) MACD and RSI indicators are bearish as RSI trend downwards.

4) STI is currently supported by the support at 2694

5) The critical support at 2614 are expected to be strong and bulls will be waiting there for some discount shopping.

Important resistance of STI: 2792 (Daily charts)

Immediate Support of STI: 2694 (Daily charts)

MY tactics: The selling has gains its momentum as long black candle stick with short lower shadow affirms that investors have no interest in buying at all. Traders over the world will be looking at Greece for more outcome and trade in their favors. The coming week could be a good time for long but we would like to see the selling pressure ease before entry.

Market Outlook (19/05/12): Traders Panic Sell STI On Fear! is contributed by : Singapore Stock Information Exchange

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The market has now taken out some major resistance by 10,100 to open the door for fresh upside and a bullish continuation over the coming weeks. Next key resistance comes in by the 10,300 area, although, with daily studies now overbought, look for opportunities to buy on dips back towards 10,000 where a fresh higher low is now sought out.

Now we take further steps to analyse Noble for dead cat bound buying point and potential profit point. from the technical analysis, after Noble price plunged 26% or 0.40 cents, if the rebound take place at 1.24 to our projection of 0.10 to 0.20 cents. we may need to buy double to vol and sell during rebound to mitigate the earlier losses. just for sharing and not an inducement to trade.