EUR/USD Outlook – August 30 – September 3
The calendar is packed for the Euro in the upcoming week, with the rate decision being the highlight. Here’s an outlook for European events and an updated technical analysis for the ranging EUR/USD.
EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
Echoes from the downwards revision of US GDP and also from Bernanke’s speech in Jackson Hole will still move the pair at the beginning of the week. Later, the news will start shaping trading. Let’s start:
- German Unemployment Change: Published on Tuesday at 7:55 GMT. The German economy enjoyed outstanding performance in recent months, and this is well reflected in the change in unemployed people. It rose only twice in the past year, and almost always dropped more than expected. Also now, a drop of 19K is predicted, similar to last month’s 20K drop.
- Unemployment Rate: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. In sharp contrast to Germany, most of the other countries in the Euro zone are lagging behind. The European unemployment rate is around 10% for many months, and is expected to remain so now as well, weakening the Euro.
- CPI Flash Estimate: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. Slightly overshadowed by the unemployment rate, this initial release of inflation for August is expected to show that the annual rate of inflation in the Euro zone eased from 1.7% to 1.6%. Only a rise above 2% will spark talks about a possible rate hike somewhere in the future.
- German Retail Sales: Published on Wednesday at 6:00 GMT. After a superb rise of 3% two months ago, this consumer figure corrected with a 0.3% drop last month. A rise of 0.6% is expected now, showing that German consumers are on the move.
- Final Manufacturing PMI: Published on Wednesday at 8:00 GMT. According to the initial release, manufacturing slowed from 56.7 to 55 points last month, but still at a healthy pace. This is likely to be confirmed now.
- Revised GDP: Published on Thursday at 9:00 GMT. The great growth rate of 1% in the Euro zone will probably be confirmed now. Germany, the locomotive of the zone, already confirmed its stellar 2.2% growth in Q2.
- Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet faces impressing (though uneven) growth in the Euro-zone in Q2, and also steadily rising inflation. On the other hand, the prospects for the near future aren’t too good, especially with remainders of the debt crisis still curbing growth. He is likely to leave the Minimum Bid Rate on 1% for another month. The focus will be on the tone of his words in the press conference that he is due to hold 45 minutes later. He’ll probably express concern over the situation in the US, and commit himself to maintaining the recovery – meaning willingness to more easing steps, though no immediate actions.
- Final Services PMI: Published on Friday at 8:00 GMT. Europe’s services sector remained almost unchanged according to the initial release - an insignificant drop from 55.8 to 55.6 points. This will probably be confirmed now. Only a drop under 50 will be meaningful.
- Retail Sales: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. Though published after the German figure was already released, this publication still tends to rock the Euro. The volume of sales stalled last month, and is now expected to resume the rises. A 0.3% rise is expected.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Euro started the week in a weak tone, dropping to the 1.2610 support line mentioned in last week’s outlook. It later gradually recovered, managed to cross the 1.2722 line peaked just under 1.2780 before closing at 1.2760. All in all, the Euro rose 60 pips after a tight week of range trading.
The current range is between the important 1.2722 support line and the minor 1.2780 line that capped the pair in the past week. Higher, the 1.2930 that was a stubborn resistance line in recent weeks provides further resistance.
Above, the round number of 1.30 is the next line of resistance, mostly due to its psychological role. Higher, the 1.3110 line served as a line of resistance and later as support during July, and is now a strong barrier. Even higher, 1.3267 is the next resistance line, working as a support line many times in the past.
It’s also important to note the long term uptrend line which switched from support to resistance two weeks ago. It will stand between 1.2950 and 1.30 during the week. A break above this diagonal line will be a bullish sign.
Looking down below 1.2722, the next line of resistance is the 1.2610 line which capped the pair in July and worked just now as a strong line of support.
Lower, 1.2460 held the pair when it was trading lower, in May and in June. Below, the “Lehman levels” – lows of 2008, continue to provide minor support.
A strong line of support appears at 1.2150, which worked as a very strong line of support, and briefly as resistance. Lower, the round number of 1.20 is the next line of support, before the year-to-date low of 1.1876.
I remain bearish on EUR/USD.
The gloomy mood in the markets is still strong, and a double dip recession in the US can hurt the Euro. Also the Euro zone is vulnerable to the austerity measures taken by the member countries. After range trading in these summer days, the new month’s figures, with the Non-Farm Payrolls, can provide significant price action.
This pair receives excellent reviews on the web. Here are my favorites:
- James Chen sees EUR/USD lean towards bearish ternd resumption.
- Tim Camerron, on Casey’s site, provides an interesting count of Euro waves.
- Adam Kritzer discusses the “risk-on, risk-off” performance that currently characterizes the markets, and the correlation between S&P and EUR/USD.
- Andriy posts technical levels for the Euro and other pairs on a weekly basis
- TheGeekKnows provides a review of the past week and a look forward.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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