By Louis Wong
When Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao presented his report at the annual National People’s Congress held early March, he revised China’s expected economic growth this year to 7.5 percent. This is the first time in eight years that China’s growth dipped below 8 percent. His announcement caused some jitters across the major markets in America, Europe and Asia Pacific. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index went through a round of adjustment in early March, once dipping to as low as 20,522 points.
There is really no need to be worried much with China lowering its economic growth target for this year, because it was first and foremost, a reaction to the changes in the economic situation in and beyond China, and that the Central Government had come to terms with the fact of a midterm slowdown. Secondly, the announcement serves to refocus the provincial governments’ efforts to economic restructuring, change their growth strategies and quality for a growth that is of a longer term, higher level and quality.
That is why the Chinese bourses’ responses to this news were generally positive. On the other hand, with the expected slowdown, it may mean the Central Government will adopt a more relaxed macroeconomy policy. The fact that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) lowered the deposit-reserve ratio by half a percent on 24 Feb is a good example of such a shift. As China’s inflation continues to cool off by dipping to 3.2 percent in February, which is lower than the 3.4 percent expected by the market, it is widely believed that PBoC will continue to lower deposit-reserve rates, while the Central Government is expected to introduce more fiscal stimulants to benefit the stock market.
I mentioned in my previous column article that China will adopt a defensive posture for its macroeconomic policy this year. Since the Shanghai Composite Index hit a trough at 2,132 points on 6 January this year, it has been on the rise. By end-February it peaked at 2,478 points, pulling away from the low point in January by over 16 percent. Premier Wen Jia Bao pointed out at the National Financial Work Conference held early this year that the Government is determined to shore up confidence in the stock market. His comment was met with enthusiasm; helping to lift the A shares out of the doldrums. Chairman of the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRS), Guo Shu Qing, followed this with an encouraging speech that further gave investors the confidence to take up positions.
Guo commented that given the price-earnings ratio of blue-chip stocks like the CSI300 ranges between 13 times in a quiet market to 11.2 times in an active market, it means that the mean annual rate of returns could reach 8 percent, which represents a good investment value that is hard to come by. Guo went on to promise to improve the unreasonable price structure of the stock market by taking concrete steps against the issues of overpriced IPOs and speculative trading of underperforming counters.
Other areas that Guo promised to improve on include pushing ahead with implementing long-term funds such as the national pension insurance funds and housing providence funds, stepping up the pace of introducing QFII when appropriate and increasing its investment amount cap. In a move to encourage major shareholders to hold on to their shares, CSRS also revised the relevant articles in the Acquisition and Management of Listed Companies Act to allow them to increase their shareholding by two percent within a year of reaching a shareholding of 29 percent without needing to apply for an acquisition request. The lock-in period for additional shares was also reduced from 12 months to 6 months.
Furthermore, there are rumours that the CSRS will make an important policy announcement with regard to IPOs very soon. The rumoured policy will introduce an overhaul of the policies governing IPOs in order to rebuild investor confidence with the Chinese stock market. Personally, I am optimistic towards the direction the Chinese bourse is heading this year, and I am predicting the Shanghai Composite Index to cross into 2,800 territory.
Louis Wong is one of the most experienced fund managers in Hong kong. He has over 25-years of solid experience and track record in the financial market. His stock selection criteria is stringent, which insists on having a thoughtful understanding and sophisticated analysis of the company before making investment decision. Mr Wong published his second book entitled “The Stock Market is Flat”.

